Black Swan Creator’s Latest Work has Intriguing Implications for LENR
The latest work from one of our greatest living philosophers, Nassim Nicholas Taleb creator of the Black Swan theory; has some interesting implications for Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) or cold fusion research. It also justifies the work of independent inventors such as Andrea Rossi and those involved in the Martin Fleischman Memorial Project.
In a chapter of his latest book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder Taleb conclusively demonstrates that many major modern technologies were invented by independent tinkerers with little or no input from established science. He even provides a list of such inventions on page 218 of the book. The list includes:
- The jet engine created by tinkering engineers and mechanics with little or no understanding of the science behind it not physicists as is often claimed. Taleb notes that Rutgers University History Professor Philip Scranton provided the proof of this and has delivered lectures on it.
- Cybernetics and computer science. Largely created by independent programmers and hackers in what Taleb calls wiki style an open sourced effort. Not by MIT mathematician Norbert Weiner in 1948 as establishment science claims.
- Architecture and engineering. Created by largely illiterate wandering artisans many of whom were members of secret guilds. Not by Euclid and other mathematicians.
- Derivatives and other advanced investment vehicles. Created by independent traders and salesmen in the financial industry through trial and error not by Nobel Prize in Economics winners Black and Scholes. When Black and Scholes left academia and tried trading derivatives they lost their shirts in one of the biggest trading disasters of all time Long Term Capital Management which required a bail out from the US Federal Reserve.
- The Industrial Revolution. Launched by mostly illiterate self-taught tinkerers and backroom inventors. Not by the educated gentlemen of the Enlightenment as your high school history text books claimed. Note: the Enlightenment was centered in France, the Industrial Revolution started in England.
To this list we can add electronics which was created by backroom inventors such as Edison, Tesla and Philo Farnsworth who were largely self-educated, the automobile, computers and the airplane. Taleb is making an important point here which will be ignored because it threatens the big salaries and cushy retirement packages of a lot of people with fancy degrees after their names.
This is important for LENR because almost all the LENR work is being done outside of established science. Like the early work on electronics, computers, the automobile, airplanes, etc. The work being done in LENR today looks like the backroom tinkering of the pioneers of those other fields.
It is also easy to identify a pattern to Big Science’s reaction to new innovations from garage inventors and tinkerers. The pattern is as follows:
- First organized science simply ignores and dismisses the tinkerers. Even if they present strong evidence to back up their claim. This at least is justifiable what comes next is not.
- Second organized science tries to discredit the inventors and their claims through “debunking,” character assassination, manipulation of the media, smear campaigns etc. (Sound familiar).
- Third when the inventors’ claims are proved or their inventions are adopted organized science tries to claim them. The establishment’s propagandists start claiming that the invention was based on the theories of a respectable scientist with proper university credentials and connections. When a working LENR device appears on the market, the establishment will rehabilitate Martin Fleischmann and claim he invented it even though he’s now dead. Fleischmann unlike Andrea Rossi, Robert Godes, Celani, or the guys at the Hunt Utilities Group was a respected scientist with the proper degrees and university connections.
If you want to see how science, technology, the economy, government and the market really work read Antifragile. It’s a real eye opener that shows how Black Swan events like the creation of Low Energy Nuclear Reaction affect the world.